Greetings from Adelaide, the sleepy capital of South Australia where everything is Lance Lance Lance. Armstrong mania is in full bloom here, with the first stage of the race starting Tuesday. But we turn our attention back to tennis for a quick prognostication on the Aussie Open, which begins Monday.

Men's Singles:

Winner: Federer

Finalist: Murray

Any of the top four – Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer -- could win this year’s Aussie Open, so picking one of them isn’t going out on a limb. The reason for Federer? Because he seems the safest choice at this point.

Scot Murray is the hottest player on tour and has the best draw, with possibly ailing Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in his quarter, but I think he’s another few months away from nabbing a Slam. Defending champ Novak Djokovic has suffered two surprise losses in his Aussie Open preparations and lacks some confidence. Is it because of his switch from Wilson to Head? I hear he is also traveling without his parents in Melbourne (perhaps related to the criticism they and his vocal entourage experienced in Melbourne last year). Who will Novak turn towards when he pounds his chest after big winners?

Nadal has consistently improved his performance Down Under but has some minefields to dodge, including Tommy Haas in round three and a trio of talented Frenchmen lurking in his quarter -- Gilles Simon, Gael Monfils and Richard Gasquet. Even so, I think Murray takes out Nadal or whomever emerges from his quarter to reach his second consecutive major final.

On the bottom half, Federer has no cakewalk, with early potential obstacles in the first few rounds, among them former No. 1s Carlos Moya and Marat Safin, plus good buddy and Olympic teammate Stan Wawrinka. I think he’ll get through them, and also perhaps a quarterfinal date with Juan Martin Del Potro, brimming with confidence and feeling stronger and freer than the other semifinalists. The mononucleosis of last year is behind him, and with the taste of the U.S. Open victory still fresh, he will power on through Djokovic and beat Murray in a New York repeat to tie Pete Sampras’ record of 14 majors.

Women’s Singles:

Winner: Venus Williams

Finalist: Jankovic

The women are a tossup. Every top contender has a major flaw. Jelena Jankovic is vulnerable to big hitters and hasn't totally convinced herself that she can win a major. Serena has hardly played since winning the U.S. Open and is rusty. Dinara Safina and Elena Dementieva are hot but do they really have what it takes to win seven matches in a Slam? Ana Ivanovic is still recovering from her shaky second half. Which leads us to Venus Williams, my pick to win it all this year in Australia.

On the top half, I expect No. 1 Jankovic to reach the last eight with little problems. There, WTA Championship runner-up Vera Zvonareva will push her, but a fitter and more prepared Jankovic will prevail. There she will take on the solid Safina or last year’s Aussie finalist Ivanovic, who, if she plays herself into mental match shape, could be a dark horse. Hunger will be the deciding factor, and Jankovic, for all her pride at finishing the year No. 1 desperately wants to add her name to a Grand Slam trophy.

The much more loaded lower half features Venus and Dementieva in one quarter, with No. 2 Serena and No. 8 Svetlana Kuznetsova in the other. Venus, who looked good at Hopeman Cup, will be pushed by Dementieva, who is riding a two-tournament, 10-match winning streak heading into Oz. But the 28-year-old American will have too much experience. I actually believe that Venus now has the upper hand in her rivalry with Serena, and if they square off in the semifinals, Venus’ movement and thirst for a first-ever title will propel her on. There, she will power past Jankovic for a seventh major, and first on hard court since the 2001 U.S. Open.