Wimbledon Predictions

I managed to call just one of the four finalists (Federer) at Roland Garros, so following two majors I'm batting .500 (4-8) this season. I won't go as far out on a limb this time as I did in Paris.

Men's Singles:

Winner: Nadal

Finalist: Djokovic

Of the big three, Federer has the toughest draw, but more than that, I just think he’s toast after Paris. I know he won at Halle without losing his serve, but by the time he gets by Robin Soderling, 2007 quarterfinalist Tomas Berdych and then 20020 champ Lleyton Hewitt, he will be softened up enough for Novak Djokovic to end his reign at Wimbledon in the semifinals as he did to the silken Swiss in Melbourne.

No. 3 Djokovic has some dicey first week opponents, including a possible second-round match against the increasingly feckless Marat Safin and then possibly former semifinalist Marcos Baghdatis or 2002 finalist David Nalbandian in the quarters. But none of these players have the athleticism, confidence or ambition to stop the Serb.

On the top quarter of the bottom half lurk Andy Roddick, James Blake and Nikolay Davydenko. I see the big-serving American Roddick powering his way to the semis. There he will face Nadal, who doesn’t have an easy road with Andy Murray, Mikhail Youzhny and Radek Stepanek in his quarter, but the Spaniard is playing at a higher level than anyone else at the moment. He’ll be pushed, but he has too many options now on grass to falter. Then in the final, he’ll take out Djokovic to all-but-seal the No. 1 ranking for the season and become the first player since Bjorn Borg to pull off the French Open-Wimbledon double.

In other interesting first-round matchups, Mardy Fish and Sam Querrey both can make statements by coming up big in winnable matches (at least on grass) against struggling No. 8 Richard Gasquet and former No. 1 Juan Carlos Ferrero. Suddenly vibrant Robby Ginepri plays No. 14 Francisco Gonzalez, who beat him in the French Open’s fourth round. 

Women's Singles:

Winner: Serena

Finalist: Sharapova

Most of the talk has been about Venus, Maria Sharapova and new No. 1 Ana Ivanovic, but I’m going with the sister who, for once, is less a part of the conversation: Serena. Here’s why: Although wee never know what to expect with the Williams sisters, Serena has actually had her best lead up to Wimbledon in several seasons. She’s fit. She’s been playing. She should be hungry about 18 months since her last major title. That’s why it was so shocking to see her lose in the fourth round in Paris. What’s more, the no. 6 seed has a good draw, with slumping Marion Bartoli, last year’s finalist, her possible fourth-round opponent and the flighty Svetlana Kuznetsova her potential quarterfinal opponent. Although she could meet Ivanovic in the semis, I don’t think the Serb, despite her confidence from winning Roland Garros and a game tailor-made (minus the movement) for grass, will take out a snarling Serena.

The other half is teeming with contenders, among them 1999 champ Lindsay Davenport, French Open finalist Dinara Safina, 2004 champ Sharapova and four-time champ Venus. The highest seed? No. 2 Jelena Jankovic, who is almost an after thought. In the upper quarter, which also has No. 5 Elena Dementieva, Australian Open champ Sharapova, seeded third, has the best combination of grass-court credentials and good results in 2008. She’ll get through over any the likely quarterfinal opponents – Davenport, Safina or Dementieva. I like Venus on the bottom half, but she will be vulnerable early (as she often is). Although she’s done it before, I wonder at 27 if she has the wherewithal to dig deep and summon her best, and frankly, I don’t think she’s shown she does this season. Youth will serve, and Sharapova, 21, advance to her second All-England Club final.

In a repeat of the 2004 final, Serena serves out of her mind and this time gets the upper hand, avenging her bitter loss from four years ago.

Among the interesting opening matchups: 2006 champ Amelie Mauresmo and Miss August Ashley Harkleroad; Bartoli against big-serving young German Sabine Lisicki; and the two rising teens, No. 17 Alize Cornet of France against qualifier Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova of Russia.

On a final note, while pondering season so far, I realized that, in a manner of speaking, the calendar Grand Slam is still alive in '08 - for Benito Perez-Barbadillo. The P.R. guy for both Australian Open winner Djokovic and French Open titlist Nadal, Perez-Barbadillo is halfway to a Slam.