Yes, some order has been reestablished with No. 1 Roger Federer and No. 2 Rafael Nadal meeting in the final of last weekend’s Masters Series at Monte Carlo. What else can we take away from Nadal’s 7-5, 7-5 victory? Most of all, that the established order on clay is similarly falling into lockstep.

However much Nadal has faltered when trying to reach the finish line the last few months – Monte Carlo was his first title since Stuttgart last July – he remains an indominatible force on dirt. It’s the Midas touch to his game and confidence, and I suspect he is off to another dominating claycourt campaign in ’08. The muscular Spaniard already is putting up some Borgian numbers, as the Globe and Mail’s Tom Tebbutt writes today. He has won 98 of his last 99 matches on clay (including a unprecedented fourth Masters championship at MC), owns a record 81-match wining streak on the stuff and will show up in Paris seeking a fourth consecutive French Open crown. Not bad for a kid a few weeks shy of his 22nd birthday. Most astonishing of all, he has never lost at Roland Garros. In fact, Nadal and Swedish great Bjorn Borg have nearly identical winning percentages on clay -- .862 (245-39) for Borg compared to .861 (138-13) for Nadal.

Federer, good as he is on clay, simply is not as strong between the ears as Nadal, as his 1-7 record on dirt underscores. Frankly, I think Federer is struggling with his confidence, despite some needed wins over elite players like David Nalbandian and Novak Djokovic (who retired) last week at Monte Carlo. How does he blow a 4-0 lead in the second set against Nadal and get broken six times? That kind of gimmeback smacks of a player who isn’t self-assured enough to close it out and who obviously got tight in the crucial moments when both sets were locked at 5-all.

Still, I think Federer’s proficiency on clay should help him locate his somehow elusive swagger, but I believe he is in an uphill battle to beat Nadal in best-of-five sets at Roland Garros. At this stage of the season, he’s even further away than he was the last two years. His best chance to win RG this year is if Nadal stumbles or gets injured. Take the Spaniard out of the picture, and Federer is a bona fide favorite. And unless Djokovic puts up some big results and Federer falters this spring, the Swiss is not likely to be on the same side of the draw as Rafa. If Nadal were to get upset before the final, I think it would blast some serious wind under Federer’s sails – enough to take him to the one major title he lacks.

Fed Cup

Though the final score shows a close 3-2 contest, Russia’s defeat of a third-tier, callow American squad was no surprise and almost foregone before it started. The defending champs clinched the semifinal tie when Vera Zvonareva came back to defeat Vania King 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 on Sunday for an insurmountable 3-0 lead. The Russians next play five-time titlist Spain in September’s final.

The biggest test for incoming Fed Cup captain Mary Joe Fernandez is getting at least one of the USA’s top three stars -- Serena, Venus or Lindsay Davenport -- to play in every contest. If one of that triumvirate shows up, they have a fighting chance against any nation. The Americans already have a top-notch doubles player in specialist Liezel Huber, who paired with King to defeat Elena Vesnina and Svetlana Kuznetsova 7-6 (3), 6-4 in her Fed Cup debut this past weekend. The South-African born Huber, who recently became a U.S. citizen, could play doubles with either Davenport or one of the Williams sisters to form an instantly formidable team.

But Fernandez has her work cut out. Serena has demonstrated little interest in competing, suiting up just once (’03) since her first Fed Cup appearance in 1999. Venus and Davenport have been more available when asked to play, but only if it fits nicely with their schedules and health. Fernandez appears to have a good rapport with the U.S. players (why the USTA have chosen her otherwise?) and she is more visible in the game via her TV duties than outgoing coach Zina Garrison. Fernandez is married to Davenport’s agent, IMG’s Tony Godsick, so that can’t hurt in recruiting the SoCal native to play. I’m not sure she will have more persuasive powers than Garrison over the Williams sisters, however. I think it will become clear very quickly in a non-0lympic year where Fernandez’s persuasive powers begin and end. If she can’t convince them to play, she’ll have to do what Garrison did against Russia: Trot out a young, C team and hope for the best down the road.

Mercedes: Federer in, ATP out

As I mentioned from my posting in Dubai a few weeks ago, Federer’s camp has indicated that the Swiss star’s commercial upsides is in Europe and Asia, not the U.S. Thus his new multi-year advertising and strategic marketing partnership with German auto company Mercedes in China. Announced on his website, the alliance includes his participation in a junior development program in cooperation with the China Tennis Association. One wonders who the suits at the ATP will react when they see their top player forging an alliance with Mercedes, considering that the company is ending its 13-year sponsorship deal with the ATP at the conclusion of this season.