That’s one, and perhaps the most important, question I’ve been trying to untangle amidst a thorny, complicated and ultimately opaque series of events that arose out of the ATP tournament in Dubai March 3-9. If so, and it’s still a big if, the tournament, and possibly the ATP Tour, is in violation of its own rules, which guarantee entrance to eligibly ranked players as well as a safe environment in which to compete.

Either way, this is another in a long list of twisted tennis tales. Suffice to say it’s pregnant with Shakespearean undertones involving money, blackmail, morals, human rights, discrimination, and, of course, the complications of operating a global sport in a dangerous world.

For background, it’s best to read the story I posted last night at usatoday.com (the full version did not run in the paper). Let me be clear that I don’t have all the facts and I’m not sure where the truth lies or if it will ever be clear, especially since the central parties, Jonathan Erlich and Andy Ram, have so far declined to discuss what they think happened.

Here’s how it unfolded to me: When Erlich and Ram won the Aussie Open in January they discussed in the post-match press conference their desire to try and play at an event in Dubai (Dubai is one of seven emirates that make up the United Arab Emirates). No Israeli citizen has ever played a tennis event there and normally holders of Israeli passports cannot travel there (I confirmed this with the UAE embassy in Washington, D.C.). In the weeks leading up to the tournament, I periodically checked with the ATP about whether they were slated to play. I kept getting stonewalled. Even when I traveled to Dubai, I could not get an answer. Finally, a couple days before I left (the Tuesday of the men’s tournament), I was told the players had decided not to come and was instructed to email one of their representatives, who also had been in Dubai. I did so.

A few days later, I arrived at the Pacific Life Open at Indian Wells, Calif., where I requested to speak to Erlich and Ram after their first-round match. With ATP vice president of media and marketing Nicola Arzani hovering near us and well within earshot, the two cryptically told me they could not disclose their reasons for not playing. They refused to say why.

A few days later as the doubles tandem marched through the draw, I met with their representative. This is where the story gets significantly more muddled. I can’t get into all the details yet, but in essence, suggestions were raised that the tournament did not want the Israelis to play there and that on the eve of the event the ATP failed to provide the assurances the players needed, among them extra security and a formal letter of invitation from the government of Dubai.

I tried to firm up this version of events over the next couple of days. I spoke to players, agents, ATP officials and others in the sport. My progress was two steps forward, one step back (or perhaps one step forward, two back). I then met with Ram individually following the tandem's win at Indian Wells on Saturday night, March 22. He elaborated a bit more, but not much. Ram more or less admitted that it was Erlich who chose not to go, a fact confirmed by others. He affirmed that in the end it was their decision not to travel to Dubai. He danced around the question of whether he felt he and Erlich would have been allowed in the country or had the proper assurances in writing. As in the earlier interview, he told me to wait a few months and then the story would come out – a possible reference to the ATP’s next board meeting in July, when the tournament and the government of Dubai are supposed to provide additional assurances that the Israelis can play there next year.

Fuel was added to their silence when I became aware of documentation showing, among other things, that part of their camp had demanded a large sum of money from the ATP, the Dubai tournament and its sponsors, as well as the cancellation of the Dubai tournament. Threats were made to bring the entire mess to the media. The documents also show efforts by top ATP officials to craft a statement for the players explaining their decision not to play for “security reasons;” gestures of thanks from ATP officials to Ram for “taking the high road,” and promises that “this will not happen again.” The ATP so far has evaded or refused to comment on the demands. Its position remains that the tournament met its obligations, as my article explains. Since assurances were given and the players chose not to go, they assert, anything else is "pure speculation." Or is it?

One credible source with intimate knowledge of the situation told me that officially the tournament’s position was that the Israelis could come play, but unofficially they were told – by the tournament, by Dubai security forces, and by Israeli security forces – that it wasn’t a good idea. Furthermore, the source said, a lot of pressure was put on Erlich and Ram to defer going because not only was it potentially unsafe, it wasn’t absolutely clear if the players would have been able to cross the border. “It never got to the point where they were denied,” said the source. “It came close. They might have been denied. We don’t know.” Others inside and outside the ATP have supported this lack of certainty.

It’s not as if authorities in Dubai are incapable of providing top-level protection to visitors. After all, President Bush traveled to Dubai last month. My source explained that the issue wasn’t so much the capability but rather the extent to which the tournament would have had to go to protect the Israelis, other players and fans at the tournament site. That's a legitimate concern. The source said the tournament should be given the benefit of the doubt, at least for now, since Erlich and Ram didn’t push the envelope and go. But that leeway should not extend indefinitely. “They were definitely discouraged but they were not stopped because they decided not to get on the airplane," said the source. "There’s nothing that says they can’t be discouraged. The tournament would say it has a moral obligation to let them know if they are at risk.” That argument could mean the ATP and tournament organizers are technically off the hook, but again, we don't know all the facts, and may never. The underlying question is whether the Israelis would have been allowed into the UAE. It should be noted that the tournament owner is Dubai Duty Free, which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the government of Dubai.

Until the players break their silence or more facts emerge, we can only speculate about what really happened. For now, these are the facts we know (some of which I explain above and some of which appear in the USA Today piece online):

--Erlich and Ram made preparations to play in Dubai. They bought tickets. They failed to show up.

--One of their representatives went to Dubai two days before the required Saturday doubles sign in, ostensibly to facilitate their arrival, though he may have been there for other reasons as well.

--Security authorities in Dubai and Israel, as well as an independent third-party firm consulted by the ATP, advised the players of heightened security concerns in the region.

--Erlich informed the ATP on Feb. 29 he wasn’t playing.

--The ATP and the Dubai tournament officials say the players were welcome to play and that every effort was made to ensure their safety, as well as that of the other players and fans.

--Monetary and other demands were made of the ATP and the tournament by members of Erlich and Ram's camp.

--The ATP, in an unusual move, reimbursed the players for expenses.

--The ATP has asked both Dubai Duty Free and the government of Dubai for additional written assurances before the ATP’s next board meeting in July.

I’m not necessarily suggesting a nefarious conspiracy theory here, but at the least there remain events that don’t add up and a number of unanswered questions. Among them:

--Did the government of Dubai refuse or dissuade the Israeli’s from coming by threatening to withhold an entrance visa? What role did the ATP play, if any? Did Israeli authorities tell them not to go?

--Were the security concerns a convenient smokescreen to exclude Erlich and Ram from participating in Dubai? Were they a convenient way to slough off a security situation that the tournament wasn’t prepared to take on?

--Could the players have gone? Did they decide it wasn’t worth it? Did Erlich, who I’m told has a pregnant wife, simply get cold feet?

--If the ATP felt sure that the tournament met all its obligations per ATP rules, why did they agree to reimburse some of the players’ expenses?

--If the aforementioned documented demands and allegations have no merit, why doesn’t the ATP come out and say so on the record?

--If Erlich and Ram simply didn’t feel secure traveling to the UAE – a legitimate reason - why don’t they admit it? Are they afraid to rankle sensitive Israeli-UAE relations (the countries have no formal diplomatic ties but share trade agreements)? Did the ATP tell them to clam up until they can get the situation sorted out? Is there another reason? Are they trying to take advantage of the situation?

--Was there enough gray area that the players could have perceived they were being intentionally excluded, when in fact, had they gone, they would have been allowed to enter the country and play without harm or incident?

--Why would Dubai, which promotes itself as a haven of tourism and stability in an unstable region, risk the black eye that could come with keeping the Israelis out when sense says they wouldn't, unless they had a legitimate reason?