33.3% Tennis Report

Although the clay court season has begun, let’s take a quick look back at the first third of the 2008 tennis season and take stock.

Probably the most stunning development is the lack major success by the ATP Tour’s top two men. For the first time since 1999, the ATP's two top-ranked players went without a title during the first three months of the season. No. 1 Roger Federer and No. 2 Rafael Nadal, who own 76 titles between them and have dominated the last three years, kick off their European clay-court campaigns without a single tournament victory so far in 2008.

The last time that happened was nine years ago when No. 1 Pete Sampras and No. 2 Carlos Moya were winless from January to March. Swiss Federer hasn't gone without a win for the first quarter of the season since 2000, while Spain's Nadal has been title-less since last July.

Meantime, third-ranked Novak Djokovic of Serbia, who won the Australian Open and the Pacific Life Open, has closed the gap on his two rivals and leads the ATP 2008 Race with 331 points. Nadal is second with 249 points. Federer stands in sixth place with 160 points.

Whether Federer’s new arrangement with former pro Jose Higueras will bear fruit remains to be seen. Much has been written about it in the last few days; I’ll address it at a later time or perhaps after Estoril, where the two are feeling each other out.

--With two major hard-court titles, Djokovic has been the best player on asphalt so far this season. Already a semifinalist at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, it will be interesting to see how far his confidence has come on clay and grass after realizing his talents on cement.

--Andy Roddick is back in the mix. It’s been a big couple of months for Roddick. He split with mentor Jimmy Connors, announced his engagement to Brooklyn Decker put up wins over the triumvirate at the top of the game, even snapping an 11-match losing streak to Federer at Key Biscayne. 

--A number of new faces and some surprising ones made early noise: Japanese teenager Kei Nishikori stunned James Blake to win Delray Beach; 20-year-old Sam Querrey won his first event at Las Vegas; South African and former University of Illinois standout Kevin Anderson reached his first final (losing to Querrey at Vegas) and then upset Djokovic in his opening match at Key Biscayne; Sergiy Stakhovsky, a 22-year-old Ukrainian, became the first lucky loser to win a title in 17 years when he beat Ivan Ljubicic at Zagreb.

On the women’s side, the established order has been equally challenged. Justine Henin’s underperforming start has to be one of the bigger surprises. Henin won two of the three majors she played last year (and just about everything else) but has struggled with a troublesome knee injury. The Belgian’s fragile body has again let her down and it seems to have affected her confidence level, too. Henin got pummeled by Sharapova at Melbourne and by Serena Williams at Key Biscayne, dropping bagel sets in both encounters. That does not bode well for her mental state on faster surfaces for the rest of the year. But if anything can right her game, it’s the extra time she gets on clay, which allows her to user her variety to construct better points and exploit her superior all-court movement.

Serbs Ana Ivanovic and Jelena Jankovic both had fine starts, with Ivanovic reaching her second major final in Australia and winning Indian Wells. Jankovic hasn’t notched a big title but has been remarkably consistent with semifinal showings at Melbourne and Indian Wells and a finals appearance at Key Biscayne. Ditto Svetlana Kuznetsova, who has played well and reached finals at Sydney, Dubai and Indian Wells but can’t seem to break through in the big matches.

The wild cards, as usual, are Serena and Venus Williams. Serena has played only three events but won two of them, at Key Biscayne and Bangalore. She had a decent showing in Australia, losing to Jankovic in the quarters. Now what? She’s in better shape than this time last year, but will she start to dominate again or will she get hurt and/or distracted and fade out? Reigning Wimbledon champ Venus, meanwhile, is out with a mysterious ailment until at least Roland Garros, which doesn’t bode well for her late spring/early summer season, even if she remains the preeminent woman on grass. 

Disappointing Fed Cup Turnout

An incredibly weak U.S. Fed Cup team has been fielded for the upcoming semifinals against defending champ Russia. Eighteen-year-old Madison Brengle joins South African-born Liezel Huber, Vania King and Ahsha Rolle to face Svetlana Kuznetsova, Anna Chakvetadze, Dinara Safina and Elena Vesnina on indoor clay in Moscow. China faces Spain in the other semifinal.

The highest ranked player is No. 112 King - just the tenth best American woman based on this week’s rankings. Has there ever been a poorer, more star-starved semifinal U.S. team in Fed Cup history? Mary Joe Fernandez must be asking herself why she wants this job when she takes over from Zina Garrison next year. The dismal showing is particularly stark when compared to the American men, who play almost without fail if asked.

    

De Villiers Taking Heat

Ft. Lauderdale's Sun-Sentinel first reported that a letter of discontent regarding ATP Chairman Etienne de Villiers was circulating at Key Biscayne last week. I confirmed the report about the brewing mutiny. Here is a near-verbatim copy of the letter as described to me by a person familiar with it:

Dear Player Council and Player Board Representatives:

We the undersigned players request that our voice be heard and our input be sought on the future discussions of the future ATP CEO /Chairman of the board position.

As you have been elected by us, the players, it is important that we are part of the discussions on Etienne de Villiers’ future. Like in many of your current decisions, we would like to see different options. Therefore, we request that other potential candidates are identified, interviewed and assessed prior to any vote taking place on the board in regard to Etienne’s future.

Men’s tennis is a very hot property at the current time. Thus we require an open and transparent process, a process of which Etienne will be part, in order to identify as strong and effective a leader for our sport.

Signed: 

Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Nikolay Davydenko, David Ferrer, Andy Roddick, David Nalbadian, Richard Gasquet, James Blake, Tomas Berdych, Mikhail Youzhny, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Andy Murray, Tommy Robredo, Paul-Henri Mathieu, Juan Monaco.

The petition lacks just three players from last week's top 20: Guillermo Canas, Marcos Baghdatis and Ivo Karlovic. I was told the only reason they didn’t sign is because they weren’t available.

What does the letter mean? Well, for starters, it denotes a lack of communication and growing dissatisfaction with the job de Villiers is doing. Obviously, he’s taken his lumps with the failed round-robin experiment, the Hamburg lawsuit and the seemingly endless Sopot investigation (and possible lawsuit from Davydenko). He’s had his triumphs too, such as the revamped doubles scoring, and prize money is up 30% on his watch.

De Villiers has long maintained that if he could no longer affect change or loses support of the players and board, he would quit. He doesn't need the money. Surely, he doesn't need the headache. Frankly, I’m surprised he’s lasted as long as he has. De Villiers has long maintained that if he could no longer affect change or lost support of the players and board, he would quit. Frankly, I’m surprised he’s lasted as long as he has.

I don’t know if this is a negotiating tactic or something deeper, but it could be that the players have lost faith in the three reps on the board, former doubles pro Jacco Eltingh, Andre Agassi’s agent Perry Rogers and Iggy Jovanovic, who was not a touring pro but worked for the ATP.

One top agent told me the players feel the board is stacked in de Villiers’ favor and that their voice is simply being ignored. Players were also alarmed by rumors that negotiations on extending de Villiers contract had already begun at Indian Wells - without the proper transparency. Stay tuned – this could get messy. Then again, this is the dysfunctional family called tennis.

DAVIS CUP: Hobbled France Needs a Miracle or Something Close

I thought the young, talented and versatile French Davis Cup team had a decent chance to upend the defending champs from the U.S., but with Tsonga pulling out with a knee injury (a torn meniscus, which could require surgery), I no longer think so. The flashy Australian Open finalist was the one wild card I thought could tip the balance if he got hot.

With Michael Llodra and Mathieu playing singles and Llodra-Arnaud Clement teaming up for doubles, the Yank squad of Andy Roddick, James Blake and the Bryans will be favored in every match (even though the Bryan twins lost to Llodra-Clement in last year’s Wimbledon final). Not heavily favored, mind you, but favored. Plus, they’ll have the home court advantage and a super slick hard court. I can see the Frenchmen pulling an upset or two, but not three. The deck, as it turns out, is a little too stacked. I predict a 4-1 U.S. quarterfinal victory.

Speaking of Davis Cup, I applaud the ITF and ATP’s decision to award ranking points starting in 2009, which was announced earlier this week. Anything that adds relevancy and weight to Davis Cup is a welcome development for the often stirring but more often struggling team competition. But will it convince guys like Federer or Nadal to forgo their primary pursuits – Grand Slams - for team glory? I seriously doubt it. And it doesn’t resolve the major problem with Davis Cup – the far-flung and overly extended format, which to most of the viewing public is essentially incomprehensible. 

Venus: Anemia?

In other developments, sixth-ranked Venus Williams mysteriously pulled out of events in Amelia Island, Fla., and Charleston, S.C., to undergo medical testing for an unnamed ailment. Her agent, Carlos Fleming, was quoted in news stories as saying there was “no serious” medical problem and that she was not taking a “hiatus.” There were rumors floating around at the Australian Open that Venus was suffering from something. Following her loss to Justine Henin at last year’s U.S. Open, Venus’ mother, Oracene Price, told reporters that her daughter had been diagnosed with anemia after her win at Wimbledon. Could the same condition be affecting her again?

Roddick-Robson Rumble?

Some of my colleagues have suggested that Roddick took a veiled swipe at me during one of his press conferences at Key Biscayne. I wrote about the Roddick-Connors split on my blog while at Indian Wells where, for the record, Roddick lost before I arrived, so I didn’t see him. I didn’t attend Key Biscayne.

Here’s the exchange (courtesy of ASAP Sports): 

Q.  You've been very complimentary and respectful of Jimmy Connors, especially talking about how he's helped your backhand.  Do you take even more pride in this accomplishment that you did it with just your brother in your corner?

        ANDY RODDICK:  I don't know.  To be honest, I hadn't really thought about it until you just said something.  You know, I know there are some journalists to write a story about why Jimmy and I break up and then head for the hills and don't show up for the next tournament.

        I think that's kind of cowardly, but I promise you, Jimmy and I are still on great terms.

In my posting, I never suggested he and Connors were not on good terms. Then again, maybe I’m being narcissistic to think Roddick is reading my blog. Besides, it was others who pointed it out to me. I never would have noticed it otherwise.

Andy, if you’re reading, can you weigh in?

    

As impressive as was Andy Roddick’s streak-snapping win against Roger Federer last night at the Sony Ericsson Championships at Key Biscayne, Fla., what it confirmed in my mind is not how much Roddick has improved (now 2-15 vs. Federer) but how many cracks are evident in Federer’s formerly hermetically sealed armor.

Let’s call a spade a spade. Federer is in a slump, or at least a slumplet.

Consider the facts: The imperious Swiss hasn’t reached a final so far this season after averaging more than three titles through Key Biscayne the last five years. He has failed to beat a top-10 player, while taking losses to Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Mardy Fish and now Roddick. Most telling, Federer has looked shaky in the crucial moments of matches (as he did yesterday when he had Roddick down 0-30 at 3-3 in the third set) – a mental unsteadiness he sometimes displayed earlier in his career but had all but expunged by becoming so good those tricky moments rarely surfaced in his matches.

                                                                                                  

Let’s also be honest: The 26-year-old has set the bar ridiculously high for the past four years, a run that has included 11 majors (minus his '03 Wimbledon) and a record number of consecutive weeks at No. 1. Semifinal showings at the Australian Open and Indian Wells and a quarterfinal at Key Biscayne this year are results most guys would take hands down. And as we now know, he suffered from mononucleosis at the start of the year, which hampered his pre-season training.

Roddick deserves his due. Since shedding mentor Jimmy Connors last month, the 25-year-old American has notched wins over top-3 ranked Federer, Nadal and Djokovic, mostly by going back to the strengths that saw him win titles and challenge consistently for the top spot in 2003-2005 when he finished no worse than No. 3. That has meant letting loose on his cannon serve, stepping into the court a bit more and taking calculated risks by driving through the court more on his forehand side. Against Federer, he nailed 69% of his first serves and won 77% of those points, including 17 aces. He also hit a respectable number of winners (36 to Federer’s 47) and committed fewer error (19 to Federer’s 23).

Clearly, Roddick (like most of the men's field) has been emboldened by high-school buddy Fish’s 6-3, 6-2 shellacking of Federer in the semifinals of last week’s Pacific Life Open. "I'd be lying if I said I wasn't encouraged by Mardy's result last week," Roddick said in his post-match press conference. Upon hearing the news from Fish’s fiancée, Roddick said he was so juiced he "parked my car and went out again and went for another run because I think I was excited and optimistic."

Slump or not, Federer is hardly in the dog house. In fact, I think he will turn it around on his least favorite, but hardly uncomfortable or unfriendly, surface - clay. It’s the perfect solution. As he works to get into tip-top mental and physical shape, he’ll get long matches. He’ll be able to groove his shots, hone his footwork and concentrate on point construction in a way faster surfaces like cement and indoor hardcourts don’t allow. Less will be expected of him, so he can experiment and tinker with his game, though he has been unassailably the second best claycourter in men’s tennis behind Nadal the last three years. In all, I think it’s a good formula for King Roger to reassert his place atop the heap and also make an assault on the one individual trophy that eludes him: Roland Garros.

    

Speaking of the Middle East, my story about the growing sports culture in the region is running in this week's (April 7) edition of BusinessWeek magazine. But here's some additional info that didn't make it into the final piece, which in typical BW fashion was watered down by the minions of editors that took a whack at it.

    

That’s one, and perhaps the most important, question I’ve been trying to untangle amidst a thorny, complicated and ultimately opaque series of events that arose out of the ATP tournament in Dubai March 3-9. If so, and it’s still a big if, the tournament, and possibly the ATP Tour, is in violation of its own rules, which guarantee entrance to eligibly ranked players as well as a safe environment in which to compete.

Either way, this is another in a long list of twisted tennis tales. Suffice to say it’s pregnant with Shakespearean undertones involving money, blackmail, morals, human rights, discrimination, and, of course, the complications of operating a global sport in a dangerous world.

For background, it’s best to read the story I posted last night at usatoday.com (the full version did not run in the paper). Let me be clear that I don’t have all the facts and I’m not sure where the truth lies or if it will ever be clear, especially since the central parties, Jonathan Erlich and Andy Ram, have so far declined to discuss what they think happened.

Here’s how it unfolded to me: When Erlich and Ram won the Aussie Open in January they discussed in the post-match press conference their desire to try and play at an event in Dubai (Dubai is one of seven emirates that make up the United Arab Emirates). No Israeli citizen has ever played a tennis event there and normally holders of Israeli passports cannot travel there (I confirmed this with the UAE embassy in Washington, D.C.). In the weeks leading up to the tournament, I periodically checked with the ATP about whether they were slated to play. I kept getting stonewalled. Even when I traveled to Dubai, I could not get an answer. Finally, a couple days before I left (the Tuesday of the men’s tournament), I was told the players had decided not to come and was instructed to email one of their representatives, who also had been in Dubai. I did so.

A few days later, I arrived at the Pacific Life Open at Indian Wells, Calif., where I requested to speak to Erlich and Ram after their first-round match. With ATP vice president of media and marketing Nicola Arzani hovering near us and well within earshot, the two cryptically told me they could not disclose their reasons for not playing. They refused to say why.

A few days later as the doubles tandem marched through the draw, I met with their representative. This is where the story gets significantly more muddled. I can’t get into all the details yet, but in essence, suggestions were raised that the tournament did not want the Israelis to play there and that on the eve of the event the ATP failed to provide the assurances the players needed, among them extra security and a formal letter of invitation from the government of Dubai.

I tried to firm up this version of events over the next couple of days. I spoke to players, agents, ATP officials and others in the sport. My progress was two steps forward, one step back (or perhaps one step forward, two back). I then met with Ram individually following the tandem's win at Indian Wells on Saturday night, March 22. He elaborated a bit more, but not much. Ram more or less admitted that it was Erlich who chose not to go, a fact confirmed by others. He affirmed that in the end it was their decision not to travel to Dubai. He danced around the question of whether he felt he and Erlich would have been allowed in the country or had the proper assurances in writing. As in the earlier interview, he told me to wait a few months and then the story would come out – a possible reference to the ATP’s next board meeting in July, when the tournament and the government of Dubai are supposed to provide additional assurances that the Israelis can play there next year.

Fuel was added to their silence when I became aware of documentation showing, among other things, that part of their camp had demanded a large sum of money from the ATP, the Dubai tournament and its sponsors, as well as the cancellation of the Dubai tournament. Threats were made to bring the entire mess to the media. The documents also show efforts by top ATP officials to craft a statement for the players explaining their decision not to play for “security reasons;” gestures of thanks from ATP officials to Ram for “taking the high road,” and promises that “this will not happen again.” The ATP so far has evaded or refused to comment on the demands. Its position remains that the tournament met its obligations, as my article explains. Since assurances were given and the players chose not to go, they assert, anything else is "pure speculation." Or is it?

One credible source with intimate knowledge of the situation told me that officially the tournament’s position was that the Israelis could come play, but unofficially they were told – by the tournament, by Dubai security forces, and by Israeli security forces – that it wasn’t a good idea. Furthermore, the source said, a lot of pressure was put on Erlich and Ram to defer going because not only was it potentially unsafe, it wasn’t absolutely clear if the players would have been able to cross the border. “It never got to the point where they were denied,” said the source. “It came close. They might have been denied. We don’t know.” Others inside and outside the ATP have supported this lack of certainty.

It’s not as if authorities in Dubai are incapable of providing top-level protection to visitors. After all, President Bush traveled to Dubai last month. My source explained that the issue wasn’t so much the capability but rather the extent to which the tournament would have had to go to protect the Israelis, other players and fans at the tournament site. That's a legitimate concern. The source said the tournament should be given the benefit of the doubt, at least for now, since Erlich and Ram didn’t push the envelope and go. But that leeway should not extend indefinitely. “They were definitely discouraged but they were not stopped because they decided not to get on the airplane," said the source. "There’s nothing that says they can’t be discouraged. The tournament would say it has a moral obligation to let them know if they are at risk.” That argument could mean the ATP and tournament organizers are technically off the hook, but again, we don't know all the facts, and may never. The underlying question is whether the Israelis would have been allowed into the UAE. It should be noted that the tournament owner is Dubai Duty Free, which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the government of Dubai.

Until the players break their silence or more facts emerge, we can only speculate about what really happened. For now, these are the facts we know (some of which I explain above and some of which appear in the USA Today piece online):

 

--Erlich and Ram made preparations to play in Dubai. They bought tickets. They failed to show up.

--One of their representatives went to Dubai two days before the required Saturday doubles sign in, ostensibly to facilitate their arrival, though he may have been there for other reasons as well.

--Security authorities in Dubai and Israel, as well as an independent third-party firm consulted by the ATP, advised the players of heightened security concerns in the region.

--Erlich informed the ATP on Feb. 29 he wasn’t playing.

--The ATP and the Dubai tournament officials say the players were welcome to play and that every effort was made to ensure their safety, as well as that of the other players and fans.

--Monetary and other demands were made of the ATP and the tournament by members of Erlich and Ram's camp.

--The ATP, in an unusual move, reimbursed the players for expenses.

--The ATP has asked both Dubai Duty Free and the government of Dubai for additional written assurances before the ATP’s next board meeting in July.

I’m not necessarily suggesting a nefarious conspiracy theory here, but at the least there remain events that don’t add up and a number of unanswered questions. Among them:

--Did the government of Dubai refuse or dissuade the Israeli’s from coming by threatening to withhold an entrance visa? What role did the ATP play, if any? Did Israeli authorities tell them not to go?

--Were the security concerns a convenient smokescreen to exclude Erlich and Ram from participating in Dubai? Were they a convenient way to slough off a security situation that the tournament wasn’t prepared to take on?

--Could the players have gone? Did they decide it wasn’t worth it? Did Erlich, who I’m told has a pregnant wife, simply get cold feet?

--If the ATP felt sure that the tournament met all its obligations per ATP rules, why did they agree to reimburse some of the players’ expenses?

--If the aforementioned documented demands and allegations have no merit, why doesn’t the ATP come out and say so on the record?

--If Erlich and Ram simply didn’t feel secure traveling to the UAE – a legitimate reason - why don’t they admit it? Are they afraid to rankle sensitive Israeli-UAE relations (the countries have no formal diplomatic ties but share trade agreements)? Did the ATP tell them to clam up until they can get the situation sorted out? Is there another reason? Are they trying to take advantage of the situation?

--Was there enough gray area that the players could have perceived they were being intentionally excluded, when in fact, had they gone, they would have been allowed to enter the country and play without harm or incident?

--Why would Dubai, which promotes itself as a haven of tourism and stability in an unstable region, risk the black eye that could come with keeping the Israelis out when sense says they wouldn't, unless they had a legitimate reason?

    

It never hurts to have a little variety in the midst of the spring hardcourt swing through the U.S., so herewith another Iditarod story from Sunday's New York Times. As for the tennis, no surprise that Novak Djokovic survived getting schooled by Fish (haha) but what a surprising, and hopefully sustainable, week from the Floridian. Ana Ivanovic, meantime, took another step in her own drive for No. 1, and right now, you'd have to say the two Serbians are legitimate candidates to challenge for the top spot when November rolls around.